Actuarial Returns Intelligence

Turn Return Risk
Into Competitive Advantage

CircuLogic applies actuarial intelligence to every return decision — rewarding your best customers and protecting your margin from your worst.

$0B
Annual US return volume
0%
Average ecommerce return rate
0%
Returns never reaching primary resale

One-Size-Fits-All Return Policies
Are Costing You

–$890B

Margin Erosion

Every blanket return policy treats your best customer the same as your most expensive one. The cost difference is invisible in your P&L — until CircuLogic makes it visible.

3.4×

Behavioral Reward

Serial returners exploit generous policies designed for loyal customers. The top 5% of return-risk customers generate 3.4× the cost of the bottom 50%.

0 / 5

Blind Spots

Without risk scoring, retailers have no visibility into which customers and products destroy margin. Standard analytics tells you what happened — CircuLogic tells you what's about to happen.

A Complete Intelligence Loop

Eight stages. Continuous learning. Zero marginal cost at query time.

CLOSED LOOP 01 Policy Generation 02 Transaction Capture 03 Score Building ✦ 04 Return Initiation 05 Pre-Computation ✦ 06 Warehouse Receipt 07 Disposition Actioned 08 Outcome ✦ Feedback

Stages 3, 5, and 8 represent CircuLogic's unique intelligence contribution

Five Scores. One Intelligence Engine.

Every score is maintained continuously, updated on every order and return event, and available at zero marginal cost at query time.

CRRS
Customer Return Risk Score

Scores every customer on return likelihood and behavioral risk. 0 to 100. Updated on every order and return event.

C-Score
Customer Value Score

True net customer value after return costs. Separates profitable customers from high-revenue margin destroyers.

E[L]
Expected Loss

The dollar cost of this customer's next return — computed before it happens. Drives every policy decision in the engine.

RAF-C
Return Adjustment Factor (Customer)

Customer-level risk multiplier. Catches the occasional-but-expensive returner that the base rate systematically misses.

RAF-P
Return Adjustment Factor (Product)

Product-level return risk independent of who is buying. Some products are inherently high risk regardless of customer history.

From Signal to Policy in Milliseconds

01
Score

Evaluate customer and product risk across five independent dimensions. CRRS, C-Score, E[L], RAF-C, and RAF-P — each maintained continuously.

02
Predict

Compute Expected Loss before the return occurs. Pre-computation during the transit window means zero added latency at the point of decision.

03
Act

Generate an individualized return policy automatically. Return window, refund percentage, and restocking fee — all optimized for this customer, this product, this moment.

LOW RISK CUSTOMER — ILLUSTRATIVE OUTPUT
CRRS18 / 100
E[L]$42.00
RAF-C0.72×
RETURN WINDOW45 days
RESTOCKING FEE0%
REFUND100%
HIGH RISK CUSTOMER — ILLUSTRATIVE OUTPUT
CRRS87 / 100
E[L]$298.00
RAF-C2.41×
RETURN WINDOW14 days
RESTOCKING FEE20%
REFUND80%

Built for the Retail Stack
You Already Have

CircuLogic connects to your existing systems — no rip and replace required.

Enterprise Retail
Order Management (OMS)
Warehouse Management (WMS)
Customer Relationship (CRM)
Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)
Returns Management Systems
EDI & Carrier Integrations
Ecommerce Native
Shopify Native Integration
API-First Design (REST + Webhooks)
Headless Commerce Platforms
Marketplace Channels
Real-Time Event Streaming
Custom Storefront Connectors
Intelligence Sources
eBay Resale Pricing API
Secondary Market Pricing Data
Sustainability & Carbon Metrics
Fraud & Identity Signals
Product Condition Standards
Logistics & Transit Data
INPUT
Your Systems
ENGINE
CircuLogic Intelligence
OUTPUT
Individualized Policy

Live in weeks, not months.

Standard integration timeline: 4–8 weeks from contract to production

Not a Returns Portal.
A Returns Intelligence Platform.

Capability CircuLogic Generic Returns Tools
Policy TypeIndividualized per customer & productOne-size-fits-all blanket policy
Customer TreatmentDifferentiated by risk score and valueUniform regardless of behavior
Risk ScoringFive-dimensional actuarial modelNone or basic rule-based flags
Expected LossComputed before return occursNot modelled — reactive only
Disposition IntelligenceMarket-aware channel optimizationManual routing or basic rules
Learning Over TimeContinuous actuarial feedback loopStatic — no model improvement

Every return makes the system smarter.

See CircuLogic With
Your Own Data

We run your returns data through the CircuLogic engine and show you your E[L] exposure, your highest-risk customers, and your margin at risk — before you commit to anything.

Request Received

Thank you. A member of the CircuLogic team will be in touch within one business day.

Start with your data.
No commitment required.

The CircuLogic demo is substantive — we bring your returns data into the engine and show you real exposure numbers, not a slide deck.

Address
CircuLogic PTE Ltd.
Singapore — 247676